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In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that inflation is not falling fast enough to support imminent rate cuts, contradicting his press conference last month when he doubled down on three interest rate cuts for 2024. March’s benign outlook came despite an increase in the FOMC’s core inflation projection for the end of 2024 to 2.6% from 2.4%, as prices came in hotter than expected. Services inflation (excluding rent) shot up months ago, reaccelerating as wage costs stay high. The Fed also increased its long-run neutral Fed funds rate target to 2.6%, an early indication that Fed governors may be weak-kneed with their inflation flight.
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