News & Insights

U.S. Market Rallies as Good News Overwhelms Bearish Sentiment, but Hawkish Central Banks Lurk

So Many Surprises

U.S. equity markets have rallied hard since June on the heels of more positive economic news, with small cap stocks in the lead. The final revision of first quarter GDP increased 2% annualized, well above the previous estimate of 1.3%. Bloomberg’s Economic Surprise Index is now at a two-and-a-half-year high. Housing is the largest contributor, and the labor market has been perkier than anticipated. Manufacturing PMIs, which are stuck in a tailspin, were an exception. Economic reports are much worse for Europe; after two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, all sectors in the surprise index are down except for labor. In May, the Euro Area Surprise Index threatened its lowest mark in a decade.